Further Evidence on Frontier Shift at PR24

Today, we have published our report containing further evidence on the frontier shift potential at PR24. We assess the extent to which any recent evidence (since our April 2023 report) in relation to productivity implies a material change to our recommended range for frontier shift at PR24. Additionally, we explore whether further evidence, including a survey of UK academic experts in productivity analysis, suggests that regulated industries (in particular, water) are not impacted (or to a lesser extent) by factors affecting low productivity in the UK. We find that, regarding the former, there is no indication that our recommended range should change. Regarding the latter, although there are reasons that some factors might affect certain industries more than others, we find that the factors most affecting the UK’s productivity slowdown generally apply economy-wide, including to regulated industries.  

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